By Stan Rosenzweig

In his insightful 1982 bestseller "Megatrends", John Naisbitt wrote, "The most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding the present." Naisbitt's model for doing so came from a World War II method of "content analysis" which is based, in part, on studying trends in newspaper articles and ads.

He explained that societies add new preoccupations and forget old ones because "societies can handle only so many concerns at one time," which gives us all an equal ability to determine where we need to position ourselves with regard to Carl Rove, Iraq and "I want to be a Hilton".

Thus armed, I note almost four full page color ads in a recent Wall Street Journal, from energy companies looking to lead the next paradigm parade. Let's consider two of these new age energy messages:

1. "It's time to go on a low-carbon diet" was the banner headline from none other than the petroleum giant BP Plc. BP, the ad says, is helping the UK meet its Kyoto targets by cutting carbon emissions by 50% to 250,000 homes, by moving from coal to hydrogen for electricity production and it has rolled out solar production to users in 160 countries.
2. "It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30." That headlines a two page ad featuring Chevron CEO David J. O'Reilly, who admonishes that in 20 years we will use 40% more oil, when it is harder to extract than now. Chevron's website says two barrels of oil is used for every one that is discovered and tells us to get involved. O'Reilly calls on "corporations, governments and every citizen of this planet" to be part of the solution.

Naisbitt's content analysis theory shows that the free market tipping point for conservation is in full tilt, shifting consumers from Hummers to power-saving light bulbs. So, where is the innovation for this shift taking place and how do we invest in this?

I just returned from a rigorous New Hampshire mountain hike with the Executive Director of a regional manufacturers association. He told me that there are thousands of new alternative energy manufacturing companies in the US.

They are hiring, they are buying and they are, of course, selling. They have read the tea leaves and, like Chevron, they are out in front of the next "dot.com" boom. The more the merrier; so join in. Help save the planet, live long and prosper.

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